Since the election of Donald Trump as President of the United States, concern over how this will affect Mexico has vaulted to the forefront of public debate on this side of the border. We worry about all the new problems we (probably? maybe?) will have from topics on the table such as NAFTA repeal, mass deportations, the border wall, etc. We wring our hands publicly about the plight of Mexican migrants in the USA, but mostly we’re thinking about what will become of us here at home. For this reason, we asked a colleague based in the United States to provide us some perspective from north of the border, particularly with regard to the impact on binational families such as his. Journalist Steve Cannon lived in Mexico City for many years before moving to the United States with his family in 2016. As a family including both U.S. and Mexico passport holders – of which there are many in both countries – the Cannons now face challenges and uncertainty that may not have seemed apparent before last November’s presidential election. Mexico Business Blog greatly appreciates the thoughts that Steve has shared with us, which follow below. Read the rest of this entry »
Archive for category Politics
Now that the United States is loudly breaking up with Mexico on social, Mexico is suddenly on the prowl for hot rebound trade with other markets. This is how it looks from here anyway, with Mexican officials popping up all over the media saying some country or other is going to be a big new market for Mexican exports. The new U.S. administration’s threats to dismantle the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) are currently stoking the flames of economic terror in Mexico, but we all know that Mexico’s dependency on the U.S. export market has been the stuff of economists’ nightmares for decades. To put it in perspective, the share of Mexico’s annual exports shipped to the USA has not dropped below 79% since some time before 1993, if it ever has. From 1998 to 2001, the concentration of Mexican exports destined for the U.S. market hovered near a truly bloodcurdling 89%. So it’s not like we didn’t know we were exposed to risk from overdependence on one market, but after 25 years of trade-loving U.S. governments, we became accustomed to living in denial. Read the rest of this entry »
Thanks to BDP Managing Partner José A. Jiménez for contributing the following post
Now that the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) has been, for all practical purposes, ditched by U.S. President-elect Donald Trump, a wait-and-see phase has begun regarding what will happen to U.S. foreign trade policy once Mr. Trump assumes power on January 20, 2017 — particularly his threats to renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) with Mexico and Canada, and impose prohibitive tariffs on imports from China. With this backdrop, Mexico and South Korea have pledged to move forward with the trade negotiations begun by the TPP and establish a formal trade agreement between the two countries.
On her visit to Mexico in April 2016, President Park Geun-hye of South Korea and Mexico’s President Enrique Peña Nieto reiterated their support for integration into the then expected TTP and signed a 17-point memorandum of understanding with the aim of strengthening bilateral economic relations. The cooperation agreements signed cover areas such as clean energy, technology, law enforcement, telemedicine and tourism, among others. The two countries further announced two new lines of credit, one for US$1 billion for electrical infrastructure development and another for US$200 million to finance Mexican suppliers of Korean industries. Read the rest of this entry »
The victory of Donald Trump in the U.S. presidential election of November 8, 2016 casts a dark, cold shadow over the relationship between the United States and Mexico. On one hand, Mr. Trump has expressed his opposition to the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), which we support. Since entering into effect in 1994, this agreement has been implemented painstakingly through tremendous effort by all sides, and has built a trade relationship in which Mexico represented a market of US$267 billion for U.S. goods and services in 2015. Putting up barriers to the Mexican and Canadian markets for U.S. exporters for the presumed purpose of saving jobs in the United States risks destroying many of the jobs this trade has created.
But for Mexicans, the election of Mr. Trump cannot help but be seen as a deeply personal affront. Throughout the campaign, the U.S. President-elect repeatedly expressed disdain and derision toward Mexican immigrants in the United States, which many people in this country take as a personal insult to all Mexicans. Mr. Trump is a crass boor. But the fact that a majority of American voters validated his harshly worded opinions about Mexicans (not to mention Muslims, women and other people) sends a clear and chilling message to Mexico and to the world that the American people share these opinions and values. This stunning revelation will now hang like a toxic cloud over every business meeting, trade mission, trade show and even long-running relationships between business people in the two countries. We can only hope that the intelligence and personal grace of individual business people will help to buffer the damage the election of Donald Trump will do to the U.S.-Mexico relationship. But make no mistake, the resentment is deep, and this cannot be good for our economic and personal relations going forward.
We were positively gobsmacked when the news hit that the British electorate had voted to leave the European Union in the UK referendum held June 23, 2016. We should add that when new Prime Minister Theresa May subsequently named Boris Johnson Foreign Secretary, we were whatever comes after gobsmacked in the hierarchy of silly English expressions, but we’ll save that topic for another post. Not being stuffy pensioners in the Midlands, our prime concern over Brexit is the historical context for peace and prosperity in a unified Europe, and by extension the world. After all, the history of Europe is largely the history of thousands of years of uninterrupted warfare until the EU’s monumental attempt to pacify the region through cooperation following World War II. A handful of billion Euros here and there seems like a small price to pay for the opportunity for peace in Europe, but hey, what do we know here in the tropics. In any case, as British millennials figuratively jumped off the roof in the aftermath of the vote, we naturally began wondering how Brexit would affect us in Mexico, despite being neither British nor European.