Tag Archives: 4T

Mexico’s 2024 succession battle taking shape

There was a lot at stake for Mexico in the June 6 mid-term election, about which much ink has been spilled here and abroad.  As it happened, the Mexican electorate failed to hand President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) the super-majority needed for him to steamroll the opposition and take Mexico all the way back to his beloved 1970s.  Instead, we have now entered part two of the tug-of-war over the nationalization of the energy industry and the concentration of political power in the hands of one party, Mr. López Obrador’s National Regeneration Movement (Morena).  For those of us who do not share the president’s nostalgia for the glory days of the Soviet Union, the outcome of the June 6 election was something of a relief after a lengthy run-up of nail-biting, what-if-ing and generally fraught conjecture over a possible Morena landslide.  As our reward, we may now begin handicapping the selection process for Morena’s candidate to succeed the Dear Leader. Continue reading Mexico’s 2024 succession battle taking shape

Mexican mid-terms giveth or taketh away for AMLO

Mexican voters will go to the polls June 6, 2021 for what is being widely touted as the largest election in the country’s history.  Citizens will cast ballots for nearly 21,000 public offices including all 500 seats in the federal Chamber of Deputies and 15 of 32 state governorships, among many local elected positions.  Turnout is expected to be higher than usual for a non-presidential election, due to the polarized political atmosphere currently prevailing in the country, and the media are regularly running pieces arguing that the stakes are high for institutional democracy in Mexico. We agree that the institutions underpinning democracy in Mexico, such as it is, are under attack right now to an alarming degree, but we feel that this is most likely a short-term problem.  The larger challenges to Mexico’s development as a nation-state, alas, are more long term.  Here is a brief summary of how we see the situation: Continue reading Mexican mid-terms giveth or taketh away for AMLO

Daunting road ahead for Mexico in 2021

Mexico, like most countries, has taken an economic beating this year from the COVID-19 pandemic.  Restrictions on business activities began relatively late here — in April — but were severe for the first three to four months, and since the summer the severity of shutdown has varied across states and municipalities around the country.  As the year comes to a close, contagion remains fairly high overall and Mexico City has reverted to red, the highest level on the epidemiological traffic light used to set restrictions on business and mobility.  Whatever the color though, a lot of people are catching the COVID, as it’s called here, and hospitals are at or close to capacity in the capital. Continue reading Daunting road ahead for Mexico in 2021