Tag Archives: Marcelo Ebrard

Mexico’s 2024 succession battle taking shape

There was a lot at stake for Mexico in the June 6 mid-term election, about which much ink has been spilled here and abroad.  As it happened, the Mexican electorate failed to hand President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) the super-majority needed for him to steamroll the opposition and take Mexico all the way back to his beloved 1970s.  Instead, we have now entered part two of the tug-of-war over the nationalization of the energy industry and the concentration of political power in the hands of one party, Mr. López Obrador’s National Regeneration Movement (Morena).  For those of us who do not share the president’s nostalgia for the glory days of the Soviet Union, the outcome of the June 6 election was something of a relief after a lengthy run-up of nail-biting, what-if-ing and generally fraught conjecture over a possible Morena landslide.  As our reward, we may now begin handicapping the selection process for Morena’s candidate to succeed the Dear Leader. Continue reading Mexico’s 2024 succession battle taking shape

Recent and upcoming investment in Mexico

COVID-19

During July the third wave of COVID-19 infections has accelerated in Mexico and the level of restrictions on mobility and business activities has increased.  One state returned to red, the highest level on the epidemiological traffic light system, and the number of states at the second highest level, orange, jumped from one to five.  The alert level in Mexico City continues to rise, going from green to yellow to orange since early June.  Nonetheless, the Health Ministry (Secretaría de Salud) has expressed reluctance to place strict restrictions on business and mobility in order to allow the economy to function.

ECONOMY AND INDUSTRY

  • Mexico’s exports of auto parts grew by an annualized rate of 22.5% through the first four months of this year, according to Economy Ministry data. Industry analysts cited increased regional content requirements under the new USMCA trade agreement as boosting exports to the United States and Canada. (El Financiero, July 19, 2021)
  • Same-store retail sales in June rose 14.4% with respect to the same month last year, the National Retailers Association (ANTAD) reported. Monthly year-on-year retail sales data continue to reflect the impact of store closings in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. (Citibanamex Reporte Económico Diario, July 13, 2021)
  • In May, a record number of visitors from the United States arrived by air in Mexico, according to the Anahuac Tourism Research Center (Cicotur). The 970,000 air passengers from the U.S. during the month exceeds the number for the same month in 2019, before the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. (Reforma, July 6, 2021)

Continue reading Recent and upcoming investment in Mexico

Mexican mid-terms giveth or taketh away for AMLO

Mexican voters will go to the polls June 6, 2021 for what is being widely touted as the largest election in the country’s history.  Citizens will cast ballots for nearly 21,000 public offices including all 500 seats in the federal Chamber of Deputies and 15 of 32 state governorships, among many local elected positions.  Turnout is expected to be higher than usual for a non-presidential election, due to the polarized political atmosphere currently prevailing in the country, and the media are regularly running pieces arguing that the stakes are high for institutional democracy in Mexico. We agree that the institutions underpinning democracy in Mexico, such as it is, are under attack right now to an alarming degree, but we feel that this is most likely a short-term problem.  The larger challenges to Mexico’s development as a nation-state, alas, are more long term.  Here is a brief summary of how we see the situation: Continue reading Mexican mid-terms giveth or taketh away for AMLO