There was a lot at stake for Mexico in the June 6 mid-term election, about which much ink has been spilled here and abroad. As it happened, the Mexican electorate failed to hand President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) the super-majority needed for him to steamroll the opposition and take Mexico all the way back to his beloved 1970s. Instead, we have now entered part two of the tug-of-war over the nationalization of the energy industry and the concentration of political power in the hands of one party, Mr. López Obrador’s National Regeneration Movement (Morena). For those of us who do not share the president’s nostalgia for the glory days of the Soviet Union, the outcome of the June 6 election was something of a relief after a lengthy run-up of nail-biting, what-if-ing and generally fraught conjecture over a possible Morena landslide. As our reward, we may now begin handicapping the selection process for Morena’s candidate to succeed the Dear Leader. Continue reading Mexico’s 2024 succession battle taking shape
Some developments meriting commentary took place last week in the preliminary campaigns for next year’s Mexican presidential election. We laid out the general pre-candidacy landscape in this post, for anyone joining us mid-program.
First in the PAN: Since we last wrote on this topic two weeks ago, Josefina Vázquez Mota’s stock has clearly risen. President Felipe Calderón spoke favorably of his former Education Secretary at an event following the official launch of her campaign for the nomination, prompting speculation that he was not averse to an eventual Vázquez Mota candidacy. This was considered to be a signal of some significance, as Calderón’s personal preferred candidate is believed to be Ernesto Cordero. For his part, Cordero wasted no time in grabbing back the spotlight by resigning as Finance Secretary on September 9 in order to formally launch his own drive for the PAN nomination. The top three contenders Vázquez Mota, Cordero and Senator Santiago Creel have stepped up their campaigns in recent days and were further solidified as the front runners when Education Secretary Alonso Lujambio dropped out of the race on August 29. While Jalisco Governor Emilio González Márquez is still talking up his campaign, the rumor mill has him tabbed as the next casualty, possibly following the Panamerican Games to be held in Guadalajara October 14 – 30 [UPDATE: González Márquez officially dropped out of the race on September 22]. The coming weeks should be interesting for PAN-watchers, as the top three pre-candidates make moves to try to build buzz and momentum. [Permalink inexplicably out of order, please go here for the rest of this post] Continue reading Update on Mexico’s 2012 presidential election campaign
With less than a year remaining before Mexico’s next presidential election, to be held July 1, 2012, not much is settled other than the front-runnership of the PRI’s Enrique Peña Nieto. But the political parties have not yet launched their official campaigns, and there is still plenty of time for the landscape to shift. So from this vantage point, here is our view of the lay of the land.
The six year administration of President Felipe Calderón of the Partido Acción Nacional (PAN) has been one of the toughest in recent times for Mexico, beginning with a highly disputed election and beset by severe recession, the swine flu crisis, drought, flooding and a drastic increase in violence from warring drug traffickers. With this backdrop, the Partido Revolucionario Institucional (PRI), still stewing over loss of the presidency to the PAN in 2000 following 70+ years of uninterrupted rule, appears to view its return to power next year as a foregone conclusion. The PRI has not yet formally selected its candidate, but Mr. Peña Nieto, currently Governor of the State of Mexico, is widely expected to be chosen. Continue reading Mexico’s 2012 presidential election campaign